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Last week · finished
Week of Mon 12 Oct – Sun 18 Oct · posted
This week’s trades are done. Here’s what happened.
Final results: 0 of 2 calls right · 1 big-move trade settled.
1/ Week of 12 Oct. Friday's Michigan sentiment came in at 46.3, under the 47.6 consensus and down from 48.1. Consumers are gloomy going into a heavy inflation week.
2/ Wednesday 8:30 ET: CPI. Consensus has headline inflation at 3.6% YoY (from 3.4%) and 0.6% MoM. Core is seen at 2.5% (from 2.4%). A hot headline is expected; the question is whether core confirms it.
Headline CPI is expected to jump to 3.6% from 3.4%. If inflation is re-accelerating, gold is the classic hedge.
Gold needed to finish above $4,270. It finished at $4,082.10 on — call wrong. The trade expired worthless. See how this trade worked →
3/ Thursday: PPI at 8:30 ET, then retail sales. After +1.2% last month, consensus is +0.3% and some forecasts are as low as +0.1%. Gloomy sentiment plus a soft spending print is a bad mix for stocks.
Retail sales are expected to slow from +1.2% to +0.3%. With sentiment at 46.3, a miss could hit stocks.
The S&P 500 needed to finish below $7,650. It finished at $7,747.20 on — call wrong. The trade’s $7,775 put still paid $27.80 per unit. See how this trade worked →
4/ Thursday 11:30 PM ET, Fed Chair Warsh speaks, with all of that data in hand. The rate decision is 28 Oct; this speech is where the market will look for the first hint.
Warsh speaks right after CPI, PPI and retail sales. Bitcoin tends to move hard on Fed tone, either way.
Bitcoin needed a big move, either way. It finished at $82,116.43 on , −1.8% from $83,581.20 when posted. The trade held a $83,500 call and put: the put paid $1,383.57 per unit. See how this trade worked →
5/ Not financial advice. Every idea lets you set your own limit, and options can expire worthless.
Not investment advice. Options can expire worthless. Past weeks →